Aviation industry in 2023. IATA forecasts

The aviation industry has gone through a challenging period. For two years, from 2020 to 2021, all carriers worldwide suffered significant losses due to pandemic restrictions. Aviation workers had to look for a job outside the aviation sector. After the transitional year of 2022, the incoming 2023 is awaited with great hope. According to estimates by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the number of travelers exceeds four billion.

Fewer losses, more profitability

It is estimated that 2023 will bring an intensive increase in interest in air travel, both in the sector of individual and business customers. Airlines should return to pre-2019 profitability. At the same time, carriers will still compensate for the negative effects of long downtime. IATA estimates that in 2023, the airline's profits could reach USD 4.7 billion, which means that 2023 will be the first profitable year since 2019 when the industry generated profits of USD 26.4 billion. The balance of losses can also inspire optimism. According to IATA forecasts, losses for 2022 will amount to USD 6.9 billion - much less than estimated in the middle of the year (approx. USD 9.7 billion). For comparison, in 2021, the aviation industry recorded a loss of USD 42 billion, and in 2020 even more: USD 137.7 billion.

Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, stated: "Forecasts for 2023 assume the first profits in the industry since 2019. This is a great achievement considering the scale of financial and economic damage caused by government restrictions related to the pandemic".

Increases in passenger traffic vs higher fuel prices

IATA forecasts that total revenues for 2023 will be higher by 43.6% compared to 2021. The interim year 2022 generated revenues from passenger traffic of USD 239 billion. In the coming year, revenues from this sector may increase to USD 438 billion. Cargo may generate revenue of USD 201.4 billion, almost twice as much as in 2019. However, fuel prices are a limiting factor. The price of kerosene used in jet engines will average around $138.8 per barrel over the course of the year, and airlines will pay up to $222 billion for the fuel, significantly higher than the $192 billion expected by mid-year.

The International Air Transport Association believes that the aviation industry will reach profitability in 2023, with global airline profit estimated at $4.7 billion on revenues of $779 billion.