EFL Barometer: Holiday Season Could Be Exceptionally Good for HoReCa Sector
The HoReCa Business Barometer by EFL (European Leasing Fund) reached 53.7 points in Q4 2025 — its highest level in over four years. The sector expects revenue growth and stable liquidity, though investment plans remain cautious.
Key Results
The sub-index stood at 53.7 points in Q4, up by 0.7 points quarter-on-quarter, marking the fourth consecutive rise for the hotel, restaurant and catering (HoReCa) sector. According to the data:
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29 % of companies forecast revenue growth in the final months of 2025; none expect a revenue decline.
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20 % anticipate improved financial liquidity; none foresee deterioration.
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Only 7.5 % plan to increase investments, down from 16 % in Q3.
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Just 6 % expect greater demand for external financing.
What This Means
After a successful summer season, Polish HoReCa businesses anticipate moderate further growth in the upcoming holiday period. The rising sub-index signals stable and improving sentiment across the sector. At the same time, the significant drop in investment intentions suggests companies are prioritising current operations and liquidity over big projects.
Investment and Liquidity – Why the Caution?
Despite positive sales forecasts, the majority (65 %) of firms plan no change to investment levels and 27.5 % fear a decline. This suggests a focus on safeguarding liquidity following an intensive summer and a wait-and-see approach toward 2026. Positively, no company expects liquidity to worsen.
Context and Background
The EFL Business Barometer tracks Poland’s HoReCa industry (hotels, restaurants, catering). In Q3 2021, slightly more than a year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the indicator reached 59.9 points. The current reading of 53.7 points is therefore a strong sign of recovery, though still below the 2021 peak.
Source: Barometr EFL
